Outside Thinking on the Inside of Afghanistan . . . What To Do?

I don’t know, at least not for certain anyway — And it’s likely no else does for sure, either.  In math-speak, Afghanistan is fairly intractable, meaning very difficult to solve . . . and for a problem of this magnitude, that’s an understatement.

It’s also in large part why I’ve stayed away from commenting much on Afghanistan here at LittleDEM.  Simply put, it’s too important a problem to be at all casual about.

But now is the time to put forth all ideas, suggestions, and observations to get Afghanistan right (or at least as right as we can make the situation).  It’s clear from what’s been reported the past day+ that President Obama may be preparing to (radically) change course.  If that’s at all the case, then the game is not nearly so much about troops, how few or how many, or — writ larger — pure military might as the challenge of Afghanistan may perhaps be recast in a much different and / or broader perspective.

And that spells ‘opportunity’ — And that’s where you and me, your friends, and your family and colleagues come into play.

So here’s some thoughts, observations, and ideas of my own, if just to help get the ball rolling — What are your thoughts?  What ideas do you have?

• Thought: We’re not trying to win a ground war, but ground troops, especially more of them, are only making it look moreso (and putting more American troops at actual risk in contrast to uncertain gains).
• Thought: In 9 years, Soviet forces lost 14,453 personnel with 53,753 wounded or otherwise injured (many, many more — in excess of 400,000 — fell sicks from such illnesses as infectious hepatitis, typhoid fever, and other diseases).  Granted, we’re in a different era, and we’re a very different fighting force.  But are we possibly ahead of the curve, a perspective that might explain why we’re loosing more and more troops, instead of fewer and fewer?
• Observation: When it costs approximately $10 to pay an Afghan to plant an IED that then kills US & NATO troops, how can you defeat that?
• Observation: Don’t forget that it actually has been 8 years and that using the excuse of a ‘Reset’ is to assert false hope that the past 8 years hasn’t existed — They have, and we shouldn’t deny it, not for a second.  In fact, accepting that fact is what will most likely help us best see and built the right strategy.
• Observation: And if you’re not quite convinced on the previous observation . . . Don’t you think the Afghans know we’ve been there 8 years!?!  I mean, how many years past 8 are they going to accept possibly continued protraction of the current situation?
• Idea: Conduct a test.  Seriously — Set the objectives and design two or more approaches . . . and try them.  See what works.  We do it in business all the time, and it’s proven to validate understandings, generate knowledge, and — in the short, medium, and long-term — achieve results.
• Idea: Give the smallest, the most rural, the most isolated communities electricity.  I’m not talking about Kabul, the capital — I’m talking about the places that only the people who actually live there know the names of, let alone how to pronounce.  Accordingly to a quick Google search, only about 7% of the country’s population had access to electricity as of 2007.  If that’s anywhere near the case today, changing that to even 50% would be a tremendous improvement.  And I’m not talking about dams and large-scale power stations here — I’m talking about small to medium generators all over the place and building the infrastructure to deliver fuel.  (Much of Afghanistan is so remote as to make power distribution nearly impractical.)  Rather, use diesel or other forms of power generation . . . and give the generators away.  And here’s why I think it might work — They’ll, meaning Afghans themselves, will want to protect those fuel supply lines knowing what they have to loose . . . and that they have something to fight to keep.  The modus operandi? “Disruptions aren’t our problems — They’re theirs.”  (We deliver generators and supply the fuel — They keep it safe to do so.)

Let’s apply some Blue Ocean strategy to a landlocked mess — Join, Think, Add.